Friday, February 27, 2009

Hannah Never Cried Wolf


A few nights ago, I told Hannah the story of the boy who cried wolf.  She has been claiming that her tummy hurts right when we ask her to finish eating her dinner.  She realized she can get out of eating what's on her plate that way.  So we've started to doubt her.

I used the standard telling of the fable.  I told her about a bored shepherd boy who entertained himself by calling out "Wolf!"  Nearby villagers who came to his rescue found that the alarms were false and that they had wasted their time.  When the boy was actually confronted by a wolf, the villagers did not believe his cries for help and the wolf ate the boy.  I don't know why, but in my telling of the story, the wolf ignored the sheep, but that's how I told it to her.

After I told Hannah the story, she looked at me with wide eyes and asked, "The wolf ate Jesus?"

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Thursday, February 26, 2009

FDIC Failed Bank List


I've noticed a lot of Google traffic looking for the FDIC Failed Bank List.  It's the "problem bank list," a.k.a. "troubled bank list," on fdic.govWell, here's the direct link:

Failed Bank List

Their list includes banks which have failed since October 1, 2000.  It is generally updated at the end of the day on Friday, so check it at least once a week.  May I also suggest looking at this at least just as frequently:

Financial Markets, Current Prices and Economic Trends

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Obama's Budget


We're lowering the deficit by taxing the rich.  This is how FDR went about it.  Eventually the tax on the rich was applied to the middle class and poor.  Again, I see the only thing we learn from history is that we never learn from history.

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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

What To Watch


This will be the information to watch this week.


Source: St. Louis Fed

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Monday, February 23, 2009

February School Site Council

The information here is gathered under the best of my ability and understanding. If I have anything wrong, I am willing to listen to correction. Part of the problem is due to the inability for people to fathom some of the facts. But that's not the whole problem. I feel like it's better to dive in and make mistakes than to sit idle and hope everything works out.
 
Today I cast my first "nay" vote as a member of School Site Council of my son's school. I opposed the principal in her attempt to amend the school plan to include clarification on one of the goals. The exact goal isn't important. What's important is that this is goal was mandated by state and federal law which I oppose.
 
In clarifying the goal, the way I understand it, the principal is hoping to justify expenditures so that the school may qualify for a particular category of spending which I oppose.
 
My opposition didn't amount to much. I was the only "nay" vote and the action item passed as amended. But my "nay" vote carries with it the desired implication, "Ye shall go no further." Sure, they out number me. But I do not give consent. Obviously they may go as far as they want, but not with my approval.
 
I have a fundamental disagreement with the lack of local control the school is able to make. This lack of control means the school is barred from certain activities it might otherwise decide to take. To me, the whole system is broken and it's time to put on the breaks.  This latest budget crisis just drives the point further.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Posterous Favorites - Why Indeed?


I am ripping off an idea from a fellow posterouser:

The Favorite This feature of posterous is one of the best features a blog can have. Why do I say this?

There are millions of blogs on the Internet. It's getting crowded by the day. Besides, I have subscribed to thousands of posterous blogs myself! Do you really think me or anyone else who has subscribed to thousands of blogs can go through each of them?

I don't think so. But I still make it a point to not miss the best posts among these. How do I do this?

I randomly go to a few of the posterous blogs I have subscribed to, read the posts there and then head on to check out the favorite posts of that author. Trust me, 8 out of 10 times I find the best posts on posterous by checking out the favorites of fellow posterous users.

The favorites feature is one of the most convenient ways to allow all your subscribers a peek into what posts you like the most.

My suggestion - favourite all those posts that you think would be loved by your subscribers. Do not think of favorites as a way to bookmark for future reading. Think of it as a way to share what you like with those you care about. Besides, this is your way of thanking the author of that post for posting something good on posterous :-)

Now for all those who read this boring post and have reached this line, leave a link in the comments section to one of your favorite posts on your own posterous blog and I will Fav it and if possible Digg, Stumble and tweet it too ;o)

I like it when my friends blogs get traffic.

I also like this idea, so I will do the same for my blogging readers.  Please leave a comment of favorite posts of those on your own blog, if any.

In my blog, I have decided to tag my favorite entries with a "Best Of" tag.  I think it's a little more humble for me to tag them this way than to star them as my favorites, although I have done that on my very-very favorite articles of mine.  But that's just me.

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Saturday, February 21, 2009

If only we were joking


Wouldn't a responsible father trick his children into thinking there was really nothing to worry about? Wouldn't a responsible father teach that Change has arrived? What terrible father would burden his children with the truth when they can't do anything about it anyway?
 

 
For shame.

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Friday, February 20, 2009

Glenn Beck Tipped Off: Civil War


Ok I got your attention.  Hopefully not civil war, but please watch:



I believe he got tipped off.  But instead of keeping to himself and merely get his own house in order, he decided to speak up.  The last person that freaked out in this manner was Jim Cramer.  Remember that?  Cramer did a 180ยบ not log after.  I expect Beck to do the same.  But Cramer got tipped off before October 6th.  What happened after that?  What a lot of people called financial armageddon (what else do you call a 300+ point drop in the S&P 500?).

I've certainly been wrong before, but I think something big is about to happen.

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My Readers


I realize most of my readers, if I still have them, probably just say to themselves after reading most of my posts:

I don't understand you, Anthony, but I hope things improve and you start feeling better soon.

Believe me, I appreciate your silent sympathy.  Thanks for that.

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Posterous Complaints


Posterous Complaint: I have none.  Keep up the good work, guys!  Greatest blogging software, EVAR!

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New Hampshire, The Free State


One star shines brighter The Free State Project is an agreement among 20,000 pro-liberty activists to move to New Hampshire, where they will exert the fullest practical effort toward the creation of a society in which the maximum role of government is the protection of life, liberty, and property. The success of the Project would likely entail reductions in taxation and regulation, reforms at all levels of government, to expand individual rights and free markets, and a restoration of constitutional federalism, demonstrating the benefits of liberty to the rest of the nation and the world.

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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Senator Wright argues for the budget package

Watch this mental patient:



Senator Wright, STOP SPENDING.  You are not a moderate.  You are just a mental patient and you're off your meds.  Your sob stories do not alter the reality that all economies are contracting.  All economies are shrinking and you want to expand $47 billion more?  Actually, you want to spend $100 billion more because that's how you roll.

On top of that, you invoke the name of Jesus to vote for this politically centered budget?  That's pure blasphemy, Senator Wright!

Jesus would not recommend that we rely upon the government take care of people.  If people are suffering, it is the responsibility of the person, family, neighbor, and the local community who should be there, not a centralized bloated bureaucracy with mental issues.

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(BN) California Senate Approves Tax Increases to Close $42 Billion Budget Gap


Maldonado is a traitorous swine.

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPhone.

California Senate Approves Budget Fix, Ending Impasse

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The California Senate passed tax increases and spending cuts needed to close a record budget deficit, ending a political deadlock in the Legislature that gripped the Capitol for more almost six days.

The measures moves to the Assembly, where if it is approved would be sent to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger for his signature.

A $13 billion tax increase passed 27-12 after Republican Senator Abel Maldonado of Santa Maria broke ranks with his party to cast the deciding vote in exchange for support for unrelated changes to election law. His support allowed the budget package to attain the two-thirds majority needed for approval.

“This could be a career-ender for me,” he told reporters in the Senate chamber in Sacramento before the vote. “In difficult times, you need to step up to the plate.”

The Senate action came amid nearly round-the-clock talks. More than a year of economic recession has hammered California’s tax collections, creating a gap in the budget that forced the state to shut down thousands of construction projects, delay payments of income tax refunds and left it with the lowest credit rating of any U.S. state.

While Democrats control both chambers of the Legislature, taxes and budgets must be approved by a two-thirds supermajority equal to 27 of 40 seats in the Senate and 54 of 80 in the Assembly.

Tax-Increase Provisions

The tax increases, totaling as much as $13 billion through June 2010, are part of a budget package backed by Schwarzenegger, a Republican, and Democrats. The Senate also passed proposed cuts to the budget.

The vote broke a deadlock that threatened to drain the state of cash and unnerved investors.

Standard & Poor’s on Feb. 2 cut the rating on $46 billion of California’s bonds to A from A+, giving it the lowest credit grade of any U.S. state. A California bond due in 2036 that pays 4.5 percent interest last traded at 82.8 cents on the dollar to yield 5.75 percent. On Feb. 13, that bond traded for an average 86 cents to yield 5.48 percent, according to Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board data. The higher yield indicates investors believe risk has increased.

Maldonado’s decision to break ranks followed a tumultuous day of lobbying, as Schwarzenegger and Democrats sought to salvage the budget after Senate Republicans ousted their leader for endorsing the tax increase.

Government Overhaul

To secure Maldonado’s support, Democratic leaders decided to take up government overhaul measures he sought, including a plan to create open primaries where Republicans and Democrats are free to select in whichever party’s election they want to participate. The proposal would require voter approval.

The negotiations, conducted behind closed doors in late- night sessions with no public input, drew criticism from some who voted for Maldonado’s changes to break the impasse.

“This is a disgusting process,” said Senator Gloria Romero, a Democrat from East Los Angeles. “This is not good government. This is not political reform. This is old fashioned special interests.”

The revenue proposal would raise the state sales-tax rate to 8.25 percent from 7.25 percent and boost vehicle license fees to 1.15 percent from 0.65 percent of the value of an automobile.

The package doesn’t include a gasoline tax increase, and it would cut a surcharge levied on paid income taxes, depending on how much California receives under the economic stimulus measure signed by President Barack Obama, according to an analysis distributed by Senate Democrats.

Scaling Back Operations

California’s government had slowly began to shut down as politicians debated for four months on how to cut spending or raise revenue to replace lost tax collections.

This week, as no agreement was forthcoming, the state told some 20,000 workers that they may lose their jobs.

The tax increases drew fire from most Republicans, who said they would hurt residents who are already reeling from the worst recession since the 1930s.

“We need to stop treating the taxpayers of California as our personal ATM,” said Senator Tony Strickland, a Los Angeles- area Republican.

To contact the reporter on this story: William Selway in San Francisco at wselway@bloomberg.net

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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

TEDTalks - The art of baking bread - Peter Reinhart (2008)

Check out this episode of TEDTalks at The art of baking bread - Peter Reinhart (2008).
 

 
Peter really takes bread seriously.
 
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(BN) California Senate Deadlocked on Tax Increase Bill to Fix Budget Shortfall


If this tax plan goes through, my family would have to hand over $1,300 more in various taxes including sales tax, gas tax, vehicle licensing, plus the tax on the income tax.  Multiply that times five for the number of years these increases are supposed to last.  All to support this bloated givernment.  Please, California legislators: STOP SPENDING!

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPhone.

California Senate Deadlocked on Tax Increase Bill to Fix Budget

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- California’s senate remained deadlocked over a plan that would raise taxes to help close the state’s $42 billion budget shortfall after four days of nearly round-the-clock talks failed to sway enough Republican lawmakers.

The senate stopped voting on the bill and recessed after 1 a.m. in Sacramento today when it didn’t win enough support for the $14 billion tax measure. The bill is the cornerstone of a budget package worked out by Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and leaders of the legislature’s Democratic majority, and is at least one Republican vote short of the two- thirds majority needed to pass it.

“We are going to be here all night and we are going to be here until the budget is done,” Senate President Darrell Steinberg, a Democrat, told reporters waiting outside. “We aren’t leaving until we get that one vote.”

For four months California’s politicians have been unable to agree on ways to cut spending or raise revenue to replace tax collections lost amid the U.S. recession. The stalemate forced California, the most-populous U.S. state, to cut off funding for thousands of construction projects, delay income tax refunds and tell 20,000 government workers that they may be fired.

Schwarzenegger and Democratic lawmakers, who control both legislative chambers, have backed a $40 billion package of tax increases, spending cuts and bond sales to close the shortfall through June 2010.

Senate Ouster

The package ran into opposition in the Senate, where Republicans late yesterday ousted Senator Dave Cogdill, who sought to rally support in his party for the budget plan. Three Republicans are needed to secure a majority to pass it.

Republicans said higher taxes would only further burden residents being squeezed by the souring economy.

“Californians are already some of the highest taxed,” Republican Senator George Runner said during two hours of debate on the measure yesterday. “They are paying their fair share and now we are going in and asking them for more.”

The budget proposal would raise the state sales-tax rate to 8.25 percent from 7.25 percent; boost vehicle license fees to 1.15 percent from 0.65 percent of the value of an automobile; add 12 cents to the per-gallon gasoline tax; reduce the dependant-care tax credit to $100 from $300 and impose a surcharge of as much as 5 percent on income taxes, amounting to an extra $50 for every $1,000 owed to the state.

Combined, the measures would raise taxes and fees by $14 billion, cut spending by $16 billion and add $10 billion to the state’s debt. Another $2 billion in reserves would be created from funds moved on balance sheets.

‘Exhausted’

Steinberg warned fellow Senators on Feb. 16 that he may enforce a lockdown if votes needed to push the plan through weren’t forthcoming. Throughout yesterday Senators were seen carrying bags full of toiletries and at least one carried a sleeping bag onto the floor. During the recess they were advised not to leave the building.

“We’re all exhausted and it’s just not that much fun,” Steinberg said. “But our minor inconvenience pales in comparison to the pain and the harm that will be done to the people of California if we don’t do their business.”

Citing politicians’ inaction, Standard & Poor’s on Feb. 2 cut the rating on $46 billion of California’s bonds to A from A+, giving it the lowest credit grade of any U.S. state. A California bond due in 2036 that pays 4.5 percent interest last traded for 82.8 cents on the dollar to yield 5.75 percent. On Feb. 13, that bond traded for an average 86 cents to yield 5.48 percent, according to Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board data.

Job Losses

Without a new budget in place, California yesterday notified 20,000 state employees that they may lose their jobs, a step Schwarzenegger put off taking last week when a deal seemed imminent. The governor is also set to shut down $3.8 billion of public works projects, including many already under construction, because the state doesn’t have enough money to pay for them.

The impasse has also strained counties across California, which won’t get $270 million the state was supposed to pay them for welfare programs, according to the California State Association of Counties. Sacramento and San Diego counties said on Feb. 13 they were suing to get the funds released, and that more counties may join them.

Greg Cox, a supervisor from San Diego County, said the payment withholding may force the county to dip into its reserves to pay for welfare. More rural counties, with less money set aside, may be harder hit, he said.

“This may be enough to push them over the edge,” Cox said yesterday. “We’re used to dealing with dead-beat dads, but we’ve never had to deal with a dead-beat state before.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael B. Marois in Sacramento at mmarois@bloomberg.net To contact the reporter on this story: William Selway in San Francisco at wselway@bloomberg.net

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Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Question Digested!


Question Digested: 1447

Hooray!  One of my questions has been selected and published in an issue of the Internet Oracularities, volume #1447.  I received an average rating of 2.5 on a scale of 1 to 5, with votes from participating readers.  The distribution of votes was 3d850, where each digit represents the number  of votes of value 1, of value 2, etc.  Letters are used for digits beyond 9.  To participate in the voting yourself in the future, see the instructions at the top of each digest.

The Internet Oracle has pondered your question deeply.  Your question was:

Oh great and powerful Oracle ...

Which one of my brilliant lending facilities will save the global market from meltdown?

Will it be TAF, PDCF, TSLF, CPFF, MMIFF, or ABCPMMMFLF?

Or all of the above?

Sincerely,
Benjamin "Helicopter" Bernanke

And in response, thus spake the Oracle:

Dear BenBern:

The answer that my omniscient vision has provided unto you through me is clear:

None of the above.

Not one of the lending organizations you list, nor indeed any that you may list, will bring about a saving influence to the current financial situation you mortals find yourself in.

As always, these matters are not problems that are solved by logical or external forces - they are caused and cured by the rampant emotions you humans so dearly cling to: in the case of materialistic monetary brokering, specifically Greed and Fear.

The solution you seek lies not in computational economic analysis and resources; the solution you seek is the Ultimate Realization of spiritual evolution, where the Witness of your psyche can be heard above the static of petty egotistical demands for vast differential improvement over your brothers and panic over the loss of same.

Hasten thee to an ashram, a kibbutz, a commune, or a Large Group Awareness Training; seek out a shaman, a mystic, a fakir or a therapist; become a monk, a Sadhu, a zaddik, or simply a humble person.  Purge yourself of greed and fear, and be an example unto those you would save.

Otherwise, you will continue to perpetuate the illusions of greed and fear, and you can see where that got you.

Thus hath I spoken, thus it shall be -Oracle

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(BN) Shipping Costs' 147% Rise Signals Rally for Commodity Nations' Currencies


I have the Baltic Dry Index chart right on my main blog.  You can see the dramatic fall followed by the bump of late.  But all I know for sure is it's still in a historical low.  All trend analysis is just an educated guess.  And trends are pretty screwed up lately.  The only commodity rising is gold, so is that what the ships are transporting to China?

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPhone.

Shipping Index Surge Signals Commodity Currency Gains

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Shipping costs have more than doubled this year, so it may be time to buy kroner, Aussies and loonies.

The 147 percent jump in ocean-transport prices is evidence that China’s $580 billion stimulus plan will lift raw materials, said Ihab Salib, who oversees $3 billion at Federated Investments Inc. in Pittsburgh. That would benefit countries exporting them, so Salib is “actively trading” Norway’s krone and Australian and Canadian dollars, nicknamed Aussies and loonies.

Salib and other currency traders have started using the Baltic Dry Index’s global gauge of raw-material shipping costs to help make such decisions. The index and the value of a basket of those three resource-rich countries’ currencies are increasingly moving in tandem -- 96 percent of the time in the past year, up from 84 percent in the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“Historically, the Baltic Dry Index is a good leading indicator for commodity prices,” said Salib, who declined to detail his investments. “Commodities are very depressed right now, and they offer good long-term value. Once they come back, these currencies should do well.”

The shipping gauge is a sign that China’s stimulus spending on housing, highways, airports and power grids will have impact beyond its borders. By Feb. 28, it will have spent 25 percent of its stimulus budget, Deutsche Bank AG said Jan. 20, predicting the country’s economy will grow at a 12 percent annual rate between the fourth and first quarter, after shrinking 2.3 percent between the third and fourth.

Oil Rebound

China is the world’s biggest consumer of copper and iron ore and has helped each rally this year by about 10 percent, benefiting Australia and Canada, which account for 10 percent of world production of the two metals. Oil, Norway’s top export, will average $66 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from an average of $40.62 since Jan. 1, according to the median forecast of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. China is the world’s second-biggest energy user.

“If a China recovery helps to set a floor on commodity prices, it should be an important boost to commodity-linked currencies,” said Jim McCormick, Citigroup Inc.’s London-based global head of currencies, in a Feb. 5 report.

So far this year, the krone is the second-best performer among the 16 most-actively traded currencies after Brazil’s real, falling less than 1 percent versus the U.S. dollar to 7.0014 by 11:14 a.m. in London. The Australian dollar dropped 8.9 percent to 64.05 U.S. cents. The Canadian dollar weakened 3.6 percent to C$1.2618.

Tracking the Index

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the Australian dollar will appreciate 9.5 percent to 71 cents in six months and the krone will gain 13 percent to 6 per dollar. Though Goldman sees the Canadian dollar little changed at C$1.25, the loonie has tracked the shipping index 72 percent of the time for the past five years.

A comparison of the three currencies’ U.S. dollar values and the shipping index shows that the former often follow the latter, which is compiled by the Baltic Exchange, a London maritime organization named for the 18th Century coffee shop to which it traces its roots.

The index hit a 2 1/2-year low on Nov. 7, 2001, following the 9/11 attacks. By eight months later, the three currencies had gained an average of 9 percent. The index peaked at 11,793 on May 20, 2008. By July, the Aussie, loonie and krone all were falling steadily; in the year’s second half, they declined 27 percent, 16 percent and 27 percent, respectively. The index’s climb to this year’s Feb. 11 peak of 2055 followed a 92 percent decline in 2008.

‘Dismissed’ Significance

Richard Benson, who oversees $14 billion in currency funds at Millennium Asset Management in London, said many of his peers “dismissed” the significance of the shipping index when it started falling last year.

“It actually proved to be a very good indicator,” Benson said. “When you piece together different bits of information, and the shipping index certainly is one of them, you’ll find the market is moving in the same direction. There’s huge, huge potential for commodity currencies.”

Investors are betting on all three currencies, with net flows into them in the past three months as much as four times stronger than the past year’s average, said Samarjit Shankar, global markets strategy director in Boston for Bank of New York Mellon.

Millennium started buying Australian dollars this month and Norwegian kroner in January. Benson predicts that the krone will appreciate 5 percent to 8.30 per euro, and the Aussie will hit 72.50 cents versus the U.S. dollar, with “high 70s quite achievable.”

Bulking Up

David Tien, who helps money managers at Fischer Francis Trees & Watts oversee funds worth $29 billion as of mid-2008, said his firm has bulked up on the Aussie and the krone. Eight percent of the currency fund he oversees is in kroner and 15 percent is in Australian dollars.

Tien said the shipping index backs up other evidence that China’s stimulus is working, including its loan growth, which reached a record 1.62 trillion yuan ($237 billion) in January, twice the record set in 2008.

China’s “stimulus is really just getting under way,” Tien said. “What that means is, within about one month or two months, you are going to see a spur in commodity demand. We think it’s a great time” to invest in kroner and Aussies.

A rebound in hard commodities would benefit companies like Stavanger-based StatoilHydro ASA, Norway’s top oil producer; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan in Canada, the world’s largest fertilizer producer by market value; and Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company. Those companies’ shares have risen 8.8 percent, 18.7 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively, this year.

Hurting Exporters

A strengthening of the krone, Aussie and loonie would hurt exporters that report in their local currencies such as Melbourne-based Alumina Ltd., a partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make aluminum, and Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold-mining company, which returned to profit in the first half as prices of bullion in Australian dollars rose to a record on Feb. 12.

Spending by China alone may not be enough to drive up demand for commodities and related currencies. Last month, the International Monetary Fund cut its estimate for world growth this year to 0.5 percent, the weakest since World War II.

Joel Crane, Deutsche Bank strategist in New York, said in a Feb. 13 report that while “upward momentum remains in the Baltic Dry Index,” its growth rate may slow “in the coming weeks.”

Anthony Michael, who helps oversee $158 billion globally as Asian head of fixed-income at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., said the Canadian dollar may lag the Australian currency.

‘Favorable’ Bet

“One of our most favorable currency bets is that the Australian economy is going to recover through being leveraged off Asia much better than Canada,” said Singapore-based Michael, who advises betting on the Aussie against the loonie.

Another risk is foreign-exchange volatility, which remains high. Options traders see major currencies swinging as much as 19 percent in the next three months, compared with the four-year average of 9.7 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G7 Volatility Index.

“Commodity currencies are attractive on a one-year- horizon,” said Steven Englander, chief U.S. currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. “First quarter, first half of the year? I am not sure. Longer-term, we expect them to appreciate significantly, but be careful about your timing.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net

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The end of the rainbow is...is...


The end of the rainbow is the local gun shop.

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Sunday, February 15, 2009

Google Sync vs. MobileMe


I have very low expectations for my address book.  Back in 2002, when I first started using the Apple Address Book, I made my entries as neat and polished as I could.  Each entry had a picture, if possible (even though that feature wasn't fully supported at the time).  Then, Apple introduced iSync (through Dot Mac) and my entries got trashed.  So I gave up trying to keep it polished and I just let it do whatever.

My theory is that iSync trashed my Apple Address Book because I was monkeying around with the contact pictures before it was officially offered as a supported feature.  My contacts were fairly old by the time iSync came along, so the data structure was probably non-standard.  If I had started a new address book, it might have worked out better.  But being an early adopter has its risks.

Years later, I decided to start maintaining it again.  I picked the copy that was in the best shape and went from there.  Then I noticed that Apple was allowing sync (formerly iSync) between Google and MobileMe (formerly Dot Mac).  So I tried that out and it totally trashed both contact lists again.  At that point, many of my Google contacts had names but no e-mail addresses and there were massive duplicates.  I was rather unimpressed.

Then I got an iPhone, and I decided to start messing with it again.  That's when I discovered the "Look for Duplicates..." feature that was probably there for quite a while before I noticed it.  So this really didn't solve all of my problems, but it made me feel better that duplicates were being mitigated somewhat.

Until I noticed I was having another problem.  The "Look for Duplicates..." would merge contacts with empty names.  For some reason, Google contacts with empty names were all seen by MobileMe as the same contact.  So "Look for Duplicates..." would result in five or ten distinct contacts being clumped together as one.  The more I would sync, the more of these contacts would clump together.  The contacts had e-mail addresses and that's it because Google would add them as "Suggested Contacts."  So I separated them and plunked the name in or at least copied the e-mail address to the name field to make them distinct from the standpoint of the "Look for Duplicates..." feature.  This solution worked.

At this point, my contacts became stable and I was starting to get comfortable.  Over time, both Google and MobileMe became one address book.  Only problem was that MobileMe contacts were more versatile.  For example, I could label a phone number or an e-mail address any way I wanted while Google was limited to only "Work", "Home", or "Other" labels.

All this time, I had backups of my MobileMe address book in case anything went catastrophically wrong.  So I decided to try synchronizing with Yahoo!.  Why?  I have no idea.  But it worked pretty well from the standpoint of Google and MobileMe.  When I merged with Yahoo!, I had massive duplicates again, but the MobileMe "Look for Duplicates..." feature fixed it for both Google and MobileMe.  Yahoo! was completely screwed up with massive duplicates, but I didn't care.  I rescued my contacts out of Yahoo!, so I was happy.

After about two weeks of zero complaints, Google Sync of iPhone became available.  So I decided to dive into using it for contacts (I'm not using it for calendars as of yet).  I noticed that the backup method they recommended was to just sync the way I had been all along, through MobileMe.  That means my backup was already created.  Yay.  When Google Sync was enabled, all previous contacts were deleted as expected (this is normal when activating Microsoft Exchange on iPhone, and Google Sync implements Microsoft Exchange).  But since I was just moving to the same address book, I should be fine, right?  Nothing could possibleye go wrong.

And in fact, so far nothing has gone wrong, for the most part.  Although I did lose my MobileMe custom labels, all of my contacts came in just fine.  There was a slight problem with some of the phone numbers.  If I tagged them with a custom label, they didn't appear on my iPhone.  So I had to go in and label them as "Work", Home", or "Other" and they came right up in my iPhone.  There are some cases that setting the label doesn't seem to matter.  There are still bugs here to work out for sure.  I'll be watching the forum.

So yes, my address book is dumbed down a little more due to Google's limited fields and labels support.  Some of my contacts have screwed up mailing addresses.  But most of them are fine.  Not only that, but even though my iPhone is going right to Google now for all contacts, MobileMe is still synchronizing to Google, so my Apple Address Book is still up to date!

It's not perfect at all.  No synchronization solution ever is.  But I'm happy with it.  Both Apple and Google keep improving it.  Just a few days ago Google improved the search feature, so I hope this means they will keep improving it over the long haul.

Now, I fear someone will sue Apple and Google for unfair business practices.  Usually, when two companies cooperate like this, they are accused of trying to manipulate the market or not offering proper support.  In information technology, the usual way to avoid this is to create a consortium that anyone, including competators, can join.  The IDE hard drive was developed this way.  Sun Microsystems adds features to Java this way.  If Apple and Google don't start doing this, they will get shot at.

I don't want them to get shot.  I think they should be free to do this without a consortium if they choose.  It depends on whether or not they are themselves litigious or not.  But the European Union will probably force them into it if private US litigation doesn't get to them first.

Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Mark Driscoll's Valentine Interview on CNN


There was an interview on CNN between Darryl Lynn "D.L." Hughley and Mark Driscoll.  Here's a frame I snapped right after Mark told a joke:



And here's a link to the interview:

http://theresurgence.com/pastor_mark_driscoll_on_cnn

Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Friday, February 13, 2009

(BN) Schwarzenegger's Budget Proposal May Not Have Enough Votes, Senator Says

I read Bloomberg News so you don't have to.  If you live in California, this article might be interesting.

Sent from my iPhone.

California Budget May Not Have Votes, Senator Says

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may not have enough votes to push through a plan designed to fix the $42 billion budget deficit that’s left the state unable to pay its bills, a senator said.

The proposal, worked out between Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders behind closed doors, isn’t supported by enough Republicans to reach a two-thirds supermajority needed to approve taxes increases and budgets, said Senator George Runner, a Los Angeles-area Republican. At least one Democrat also may not vote for the package, which would raise taxes, cut spending and borrow to fill the gap.

“I don’t see that the votes are available to get this out of the Senate,” Runner said in an interview yesterday. “The support isn’t there right now.”

The budget proposal would raise the state’s sales tax rate to 8.25 percent from 7.25 percent; boost vehicle license fees to 1.15 percent from 0.65 percent of the value of an automobile; add 12 cents of taxes to each gallon of gasoline; reduce the dependent-care tax credit to $100 from $300; and impose a surcharge on income taxes of between 2.5 percent and 5 percent, depending upon how much California gets in federal stimulus money.

Combined, the measures would raise taxes and fees by $14 billion. Schwarzenegger is also proposing $16 billion in spending cuts and $11 billion in new state debt. All the tax increases would be temporary, lasting from two to five years.

Ready to Fire

Schwarzenegger is prepared to tell 20,000 state employees later today that they may be terminated to conserve cash if he and lawmakers can’t reach a consensus on a budget plan that can garner enough votes, said his Press Secretary Aaron McLear.

“In the absence of an agreement the governor must do everything that he can to conserve cash,” McLear said.

The Assembly and the Senate have scheduled floor sessions to vote on the package for tomorrow starting at 9 am local time. Schwarzenegger has been calling individual lawmakers to press his case, McLear said.

An agreement would bring an end to a four-month stalemate over how to cover the record deficit that has drained California of cash, left it with the lowest credit rating among U.S. states, forced officials to delay paying $3.7 billion of bills and halted $3.8 billion of bond-financed construction on schools, roads and other public works

Republicans have blocked previous tax-increase proposals advanced by Schwarzenegger and the Democrats who hold a majority in both chambers of the Legislature. Democrats don’t have enough seats to raise taxes or pass a budget without Republican support.

Termination Notices

Schwarzenegger’s administration said Feb. 10 that it would begin sending out termination notices today to about 8 percent of the state’s employees, laying the groundwork for the governor’s goal of temporarily cutting as many as 10,000 jobs.

He ordered more than 200,000 state workers to begin taking two unpaid days off, beginning this month.

Tomorrow’s vote will come just at an estimated 80,000 people will descend upon downtown Sacramento for the start of Tour of California bicycle race, where seven-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong and former Tour de France champion Floyd Landis will compete. Much of the area around the state capitol building will be blocked off from vehicle traffic during the day, making it difficult for the public to access the building for the vote.

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael B. Marois in Sacramento, California, at mmarois@bloomberg.net

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Tikitag Renamed to Touchatag


I have seen evidence that points to Tikitag being renamed to Touchatag.  I knew the name was changing, but didn't know to what.  Seems like they were trying to keep it a secret until the 15th.  But this is the internet, so oh well.

Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Solving The Economic Crisis


 

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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Winters of long ago


Download now or preview on posterous
wintersoflongago.pps (2771 KB)

Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

What's With LazyTown?


First of all, what is LazyTown?  It's a TV show for preschoolers on Nick Jr.  But it is also quite a bit of a meme, too.  The show is for kids, but the meme genre is composed of 50% perverts, 33% high school kids, and the rest probably just like the music.  This is a quintessential example video for LazyTown:


"Cooking By the Book," source: YouTube
 
The girl with pink hair is the character named Stephanie (played by Julianna Rose Mauriello).  She's usually the moral authority in the show.  When some of the other characters get the idea to do something ill-advised (like playing video games all day, for example), she has advise to give them (like going outside and playing).  I think it's great to instruct kids with absolute words like "always," "never," and "ought."

Ok, I over-analyze everything.  I think over-analysis is one of my spiritual gifts, along with the gift of discouragement.  That's how I roll.  But this show is easy to over-analyze.  Like most stuff for kids, the parents either love it or hate it.

The first time I heard the song, "Cooking By the Book" was when we were returning from a trip to Auburn.  We were up there for Thanks Giving and we had a long drive ahead of us.  So we popped in a CD that was given to us by a friend of a family member.  The CD was actually a huge collection of tracks originally given as a party favors (yes, that's probably still illegal distribution).  Most of the tracks were of The Wiggles.  But before The Wiggles, there were several songs from shows I'd never heard of.  One of the songs was "Cooking By the Book," but I had still not heard of LazyTown.  At the time, I had only heard the meme, "the cake is a lie!"

When I first heard it, my impression was that it was a Britney Spears style preschool song.  Of course you sing about cake with kids instead of whatever it is Britney sings.  Anyway, I didn't like the song, then, and whenever we played the CD after that, I'd skip it.

So, one day I got a Digg: This is SOOOOO WRONG.  Basically, there are 1,000s of diggs that point to the music video.  But the video was pulled by the copyright holders, which happens a lot.  So people are freaking out about this video.  That happens a lot too.  Sometimes this herd behavior leads to the formation of a meme.  I think in this case, it most certainly did.

It is obviously designed by people who study child development.  Barney, Teletubbies, The Wiggles, LazyTown, and a lot of other stuff just get misunderstood.  Granted, there are good reasons to be critical of all media input, but I can't find anything about LazyTown that's amiss.  I think it's great.

As good as LazyTown is, it should not be a substitute for instruction from the parents.  But one thing this show does better than me is promoting physical activity.  So if I plan on being a good role model, I need to get on the ball.  I'm already sunk because the show always ends with Stephanie performing a song and dance routine to Bing Bang, the show's ending theme:


"LazyTown Bing Bang - The Single Version!," source: YouTube

I guess the bottom line is, do Hannah and Benjamin like it?  Yes they do.  Hannah asks to see Stephanie every day and loves to dance with me.  Benjamin is even responding verbally to it, which I would have never expected.  While a big purple dinosaur won't get him to talk, a girl with pink hair jumping around like a cheer leader does.  Actually, come to think of it, that makes sense.

It's one of those things that if you listen to it enough, you have to either like it or you get a Glock 17 and shoot yourself.  But that dance routine will probably kill me anyway!

Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The War on Abortionism


In the latest episode of The Sitter Downers, I thought it was interesting that Tom had to come up with a legitimate reason to invade the US before he could postulate his actual question.  I'm not entirely sure what Tom's question was, so I'll come up with my own after using the following scenario to help suspend Adam's disbelief.

I think Tom was going to try to ask about the principle of invading another sovereign country that didn't pose a threat.  And what gives any country a right to impose its beliefs on any other country?

Adam's objection was that Tom didn't account for the fact that the American invasions are noble.  So in order to address that, here's my analogy.

Suppose...

  • ... a superpower invaded America and continued killing Americans who fought back and resisted the occupation to the tune of between 4,000 to 15,000 each day (depending on the day of the week).
  • ... the invading superpower is a relatively small, relatively militant nation who recently became a superpower due to the discovery of a powerful new energy source called AQS (artificial quantum singularity) which now makes this superpower very rich and very dangerous.
  • ... the superpower invaded America because it had a moral objection to the killing of 3,000 to 5,000 people every single day (depending on the day of the week).
  • ... the 3,000 to 5,000 people America kills are unborn babies.
  • ... this superpower isn't part of the UN, but if it were, it would just ignore the UN.
  • ... this invading superpower also made an alliance with Mexico for logistic purposes.
  • ... Mexico sides with the invaders and creates an alliance in exchange for support and protection.

We know that not all Americans personally kill unborn babies.  But that distinction is relatively unimportant to the invaders.  To them, all Americans have the potential of becoming abortionists either by performing abortions or by fighting the occupation.  They make no distinction between the abortionists and those who harbor them.

Since the Americans voted for the "abortionism" regime for 35 years on end (republicans and democrats are both abortionism regimes), all Americans are to blame to some extent.  The occupying nation also takes issue with Christianity, claiming it promotes abortionism.  Although this is a false claim, the citizens of the invading superpower can't be bothered to check the facts.

So with the above analogy in mind, my main question is, do you think it's ok to call all the Americans who fight back abortionists?

Also, does it seem a little strange that the invaders are against abortionism but don't mind killing many times more Americans to stop them from being abortionists?

It is also very convenient that abortionists come to America from other countries to get killed.  That way, the invading superpower is itself safe from abortionism since they are fighting them "over there."

What was the alternative?  Assuming such a superpower came into existence, does it not have a moral obligation to stop the murder of these innocents by any means necessary?  Should the superpower just stand by and allow the Americans to kill these people when it has the power to step in and stop it?  Should the superpower really just rely upon "talks" to try to convince the Americans to stop their abortionist regime?

Or in fact, is there a principle at work for respecting the borders of other nations and avoiding entangling alliances instead of invading nations that do things we don't approve of?

Shouldn't the new superpower respect the borders of the abortionist nations and set an example by not itself engaging in abortion?  Setting an example for other nations establishes a moral high-ground for them to follow.

If you're having trouble seeing the parallels in my analogy, I'll break it down for you:

  • America is analog to Iraq, therefore
    • Abortionism is analog to Terrorism, therefore:
      • Abortion = Terror
      • Abortionist = Terrorist
      • Abortionist/ism Regime = Terrorist/ism Regime
      • War on Abortionism = War on Terrorism
  • The invading superpower is analog to America, therefore
    • AQS is dual analog to America's rich resources and military industrial complex.
  • There are definitely other parallels, I just didn't fully document them all.

No analogy is perfect.  For example, Iraq didn't have any known Al-Qaeda terrorists until we invaded, but my analog America has abortionists, just like in real life.  But I hope someone will answer a few of my questions.  Please stick to the overarching theme and try not to knit-pick my analogy too much.  Some knit-picking is in order, but there's no reason to allow it to short-circuit the original point.

Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Congressional Bailout By The Numbers, II

Just like last time, the markets tanked after the bill was approved.  It hasn't been signed yet, but that likely won't matter.  I think it's important to remember ...
 
Government cannot really "create" any jobs per se. It can raise taxes and shift private sector jobs creation to government jobs creation (typically a malinvestment), and it can bring production and consumption forward for those jobs that are genuinely needed (filling potholes), but once the potholes are filled, one has to ask the question, "What will we do for an encore?"
- Mike "Mish" Shedlock

In fact, all the government can do is price-fix.  Look at the massive scale price-fixing has taken ... again.

Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Monday, February 9, 2009

geotag003


This is geotag003.  The Quicktime VR didn't stitch too good.  But other than that ... enjoy!

Download now or watch on posterous
geotag003.mov (1676 KB)

Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

How much can the government do to fix our economy?


I guess I shouldn't be so surprised. To me, half the problem is that people trust this government of theirs to magically fix things that defy logic. Don't they know this fiction is no different from Santa and the Tooth Fairy?
 
The real answer is that government already has the tools and authority needed to address the problem, but they have ignored their mandate. All they should be doing is upholding the rule of law and prosecuting fraud. That's it. Everything else will only delay the recovery.

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Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Pie Index


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Posted via email from Anthony Martin's Weblog

Monday, February 2, 2009

(BN) California Crisis Spurs Trading in Credit-Default Swaps Linked to State


This is bad ... Real bad ... Umkay?  Umkay.

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPhone.

California Budget Crisis Spurs Trading in Credit-Default Swaps

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Banks, hedge funds and other investors seeking to protect themselves from losses tied to California’s budget crisis are driving an increase in trading in credit- default swaps linked to the state.

Credit-default swaps protecting against a default by California, the nation’s most populous state, have more than tripled since Sept. 5, according to CMA DataVision in London. Last week, the contracts for the first time showed up on a list of the 1,000 most actively traded in the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.’s trade warehouse.

Banks and investors are using the derivatives to hedge against losses on interest-rate swaps, commodities contracts and other assets that face losses if the state can’t make good on its obligations, said Fabrice Pilato, head of muni derivative trading at Morgan Stanley in New York.

“Because California is the largest U.S. state and is currently facing a well-publicized cash shortfall, many parties that have exposure to munis in general and to California in particular” are using the contracts as a hedge, Pilato said in a telephone interview.

Plunging housing prices and financial markets and rising unemployment have siphoned tax revenue from the state, which is set to face $42 billion less than it will need to pay for schools, police and other services through June 2010.

Moody’s Investors Service last month placed $67 billion of the state’s debt on review for a possible downgrade, citing a “lack of legislative solutions” for closing the budget gap. Moody’s rates California’s long-term debt A1, tied with Louisiana as the lowest among U.S. states. Standard & Poor’s, which has an equivalent rating of A+ on California’s general obligation bonds, said in December it was considering a downgrade.

Budget Shortfall

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said Jan. 26 that legislative leaders were closing in on an agreement to eliminate the budget shortfall.

Despite the increase in trading of California credit-default swaps, the market remains relatively illiquid compared with that for contracts linked to companies. The rush to hedge and speculation there will be more negative headlines in coming months are distorting the actual default risks for the state, said Matt Fabian, managing director at Municipal Market Advisors.

Traditional tax-exempt municipal bond investors haven’t been using the credit-default swaps market, he said.

‘More Bad News’

“I think what the market is saying is there’s a high likelihood of more bad news,” Fabian said. “The risk of California defaulting hasn’t changed very much. It would have to stop paying on tens of billions of dollars of regular expenses before its constitution would let it default on its debt.”

Credit-default swaps protecting against losses on the state’s debt for 10 years have jumped 257 basis points to 350 basis points since Sept. 5 and reached as high as 507 basis points in December, according to CMA DataVision.

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

Five-year contracts on the Markit MCDX index, tied to 50 municipal issuers including California, have risen 59 basis points since the end of October to 210 basis points, CMA data show. It reached 350 basis points last month.

Credit-default swaps, used to hedge against losses or to speculate on the ability of borrowers to repay their debt, rise as investor confidence deteriorates. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent if borrowers fail to meet their debt obligations.

As of Jan. 23, there were outstanding credit-default swaps on California covering a net $375 million of debt, according to data from the Depository Trust’s registry. That compares with an average of about $1.2 billion for the 1,000 most actively traded names, the data show.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net

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