Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Capitalism Without Capital? (With Pictures)

Here is Ron Paul's "Texas Straight Talk" article this week, "Capitalism Without Capital?"  I've added pictures for people who can't get through articles like this without them (as if pretty pictures are all people need to pay attention to what's going on).

It has been long understood that our federal government is going deeper into debt, consistently raising the debt ceiling and demonstrating no fiscal restraint.  In recent years, debt ceiling increases have been placed in "must pass" legislation as a means to guarantee that Republicans as well as Democrats would vote for them when Congress was under Republican control.



We also know our nation's "negative savings rate" reflects the habits of private citizens, showing those habits to be not tremendously different than the habits of the public sector.  Yet, the signs of decline are becoming ever more apparent.  So apparent, in fact, that it seems unlikely that bailouts or other gimmicks will have even short term success.  More inflation, and creating moral hazard by bailing out egregious offenders, is a recipe for disaster.  These activities can seem to provide some short term relief, but it seems we are now at a significant crisis point, where monetary policy gimmicks don't provide the band-aids they did in the past.


Not only is our nation on the verge of bankruptcy, but so are its people and private institutions. We are now repeatedly hearing about businesses "needing to access the credit market to make payroll."  This is an unmistakable sign of more dire consequences ahead for the economy.  If businesses must borrow just to make payroll, this is evidence of a severe undercapitalization that cannot be sustained, even for the short run.


Couple these facts with items such as the explosion of the "pay day loan" industry and the unmasking of the false sense of economic well-being is nearly complete.  These pay day loan companies use preferred access to easy credit to inject cash into the hands of the working poor.  They are nearly always set up in lower-income neighborhoods.  These people, who are struggling to buy food and pay rent, get addicted to the credit drug.  Their standard of living is only further depressed by the interest payments on these loans that make them profitable to their providers.  Thus, the recipients are left even less capable of paying for items such as food and housing in the long run, without using this credit again and again.


These people are often the very ones being paid by businesses who "borrow to make payroll."  This is the dark underbelly of the fiat money, borrow and spend economy this nation has been building.  As the government takes over more and more functions of the economy many see the rise of socialism as an antidote to this failure of "capitalism".  However, the fact remains that our economy has been increasingly running on debt, not capital.  Capitalism does not exist without capital and debt is not, has never been and will never be a form of capital.   Only now are we seeing the more dire implications of an economy without capital.
See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted by email from Anthony Martin's Weblog (posterous)

Currency Event


I believe we are about to see another currency event in Mexico like what just happened to Iceland.  I hope I'm wrong.  Maybe it's just a blip.

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted by email from Anthony Martin's Weblog (posterous)

Banktron



Source: SinFest
See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted by email from Anthony Martin's Weblog (posterous)

Monday, October 13, 2008

So What Just Happened?

Today, the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) leaped back to life. It was up 11.1% So is the recession over? Don't forget to get the t-shirts CNN is selling:


Also see: Shirt Archive

Sometimes, people say that the DJIA isn't really an indicator of the health of the economy. I couldn't agree more. What we saw today was a direct result of Friday's CDS (credit default swap) settlement. The industry now has a better idea of what these instruments are worth, so as result, there has been sunshine shed on the market. The market likes sunshine and it usually reacts favorably to it.

In addition to being very volatile, there is also a very odd condition in the market right now. This odd condition is that both the DJIA and commodities are going up at the same time. Usually they go in opposite directions. For example, when the DJIA goes up, oil and gold prices come down. Instead, they're doing weird things.

It also remains to be seen if this settlement's sunshine will last. I believe a much more reliable indicator for the current turmoil is the TED Spread indicator. For the current season of turmoil, if that indicator keeps going up, we will continue to see problems. I believe the TED Spread, not the DJIA, is the richter scale for our economy at the moment.

Another possibility is that the problem has been largely patched and now we'll go along on our merry way again just like before. So banks will start lending again and another huge bubble will form, bringing us back to this point, only worse.

Those of the Austrian School of Economics believe the problem is bank credit expansion, which can be visualized as follows:


Source: Arkansas IMC

There's nothing inherently wrong with investing in the financial sector. The problem is how this is being financed. It is being financed with easy money through bank credit expansion, thus resulting in an increased money supply and inflation. The above chart shows how much the financial sector has overtaken manufacturing. By delaying the difficult recession, we have delayed recovery and made the present crisis more difficult as well.

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted by email from Anthony Martin's Weblog (posterous)

Just Don't Buy



Source: Steal This Comic

So here's my lunch-time blog-entry.

If one were steal a lawn mower or buy one on the black market and "things change" (such as the gasoline stops being sold so you have to convert your lawn mower to run on compressed natural gas), you can modify your unlicensed lawn mower without having to worry about the authorities getting involved.

But if you went through the "proper" channels and bought your lawn mower from a legitimate source and "things change" (same example, no gas, need to switch to CNG), you may run into problems modifying your licensed lawn mower.

Silly, right?  Who would be restricted from modifying their own personal property?  But if there was a law requiring a license to operate a lawn mower, would it be unreasonable for there to be restrictions on modifying licensed equipment?  It's for the greater good, after all.

This is true with firearms.  An illegally purchased firearm comes with fewer restrictions.  If you purchase a semi-automatic weapon legally and "things change" (like your neighborhood goes bad) you are restricted from modifying it to fully-automatic.  It's your own personal property, isn't it?  So why can't you make these modifications? 

So if you just do what the law requires, you're screwed either way but at least you took the moral high-ground.  I guess the simple moral approach is just not to buy these things since there's a moral dilemma in either case or you'd be screwed.  Why not just screw yourself earlier rather than later, it saves time and money.

I don't believe the ends justifies the means.  The problem comes from an abusive stance on private property rights.  I should be able to do whatever I want with my property.  When corporations monkey with this and gets government to go along with it, it creates these unintended consequences.

Posted by email from Anthony Martin's Weblog (posterous)

Saturday, October 11, 2008

"... all he talks about is probation ..."


Overheard outside Red Robin.

Posted by email from Anthony Martin's Weblog (posterous)

Bush's Bogus Bailout Blunder


After the bailout was passed (October 3rd), the Dow fell 400 points by the end of the day.  Now, it has fallen by greater than 2000 points since the bailout was passed.  By my calculations, the Dow has lost at least $1.4 trillion, and they haven't even spent the $700 billion yet.

Since cheap credit and over stimulation caused this financial meltdown, then obviously we need more cheap credit and more stimulation to fix it.  Even after the bill was passed, articles were popping up that hinted it wasn't enough.  Well no wonder.

Yet our bailout money will be recouped, at least?  We got it straight from the horses mouth when President Bush said (emphasis mine):

As the banking sector and the market for troubled assets recover, the government will begin to recoup some of the taxpayers' funds invested in the recovery. In other words, some of these assets that were taken are at a depressed value. Home ownership -- homeowners -- home prices are down, the value of the assets are down. Eventually, we expect that much, if not all, of the tax dollars will be recouped.
Source: White House

So the President flat out disagrees with Jim Rogers (skip to time index 5:19, if you don't have time to watch the whole thing):



Which person do you think is more well informed on the subject?  Jim Rogers, who has been right more often than the Fed Chairman himself, or all the President's men?

Another odd statement from the President:

Every American knows the burden of taxes. During the tough economic time,that burden falls especially hard. A lot of people are wondering whetheror not their taxes are going to go up. One of the interesting things aboutthe package I signed is that it does prevent the Alternative Minimum Taxfrom kicking in, which would have cost 26 million Americans $2,200 apiece. During this economic uncertainty, we don't need to be raising taxes.
Source: White House

The President did not need this bill to prevent the Alternative Minimum Tax from kicking in.  The President has distorted the truth again.  In fact, it was illegal for the Senate to attach this tax revision to a previous bill in this manner.  Illegal, kind-of like when the House authorized the President to go to war with Iraq.  We have checks and balances for a reason.  If not, why have them?  The rule of law means nothing to our illustrious government.

By the way, if you don't know what the Alternative Minimum Tax is, and you are in favor of the Fair Tax, shame on you!  That's one of your platforms!

I wish I could snap my fingers and make what happened stop. But that's notthe way it works. And I told you, I made a decision that is reallyopposite of my philosophy. I basically believe if people make baddecisions in the marketplace, they ought to fail. The problem is, in thiscase, failure would have cost you. What appeared to be something thatmight have been isolated in New York, would have cost you the job. Andthat was unacceptable to me.
Source: White House

Seems like the same dilemma Andrew Jackson faced during the banking crisis of his day.  Jackson made the right choice, Bush made the wrong choice.  Bush totally blundered.  How do I know?  Because Bush ignored the Constitution.  He ignored his oath to protect life, liberty, and private property.  More people will suffer from his decision than if he had pulled the plug on the economy himself.

Now see if you can decode this "question" from one of the people who attended:

I mean, just to give you some quick numbers. We're a $3.5 milliondollar company, and we rely on a $500,000 home credit line to support ourbusiness, which means we have to roll this money over six, seven times ayear. That's how much we need this credit. And now the -- we've got anotice or a letter from a bank -- or from the bank that runs our creditline -- that says home values are going down a little bit, and if you paydown your principle a little, we're not going to give you quite as muchback. And so our strategy is don't pay it down, to keep it maxed out allthe time.

... to continue ...

And so we're comfortable now, and we're able to take care of our businessby doing this. But it's so important for you to emphasize the need thatsmall businesses have for the use of that credit. And I thank you so much. You're really working hard --

Bush's response:

Thanks for hanging in there.

That is totally sick.  This business is operating in a perpetual half-million-dollar hole, and the president just thanks him for hanging in there?  I feel bad for people who are in this mess, but even if it was me, I wouldn't expect the government to bail out my bad decisions.  Up until now, we seem to have thought it was perfectly normal for a giant percentage of businesses to be in debt.  This is why easy credit is bad.  It distorts our thinking and the free market.
 
By the way, this entire discussion smacks of being completely scripted from beginning to end, especially the Q-and-"A".  How's that for bogus?  All to sell us on a bill that was passed using fraud, bribery, and threats of violence.

Posted by email from Anthony Martin's Weblog (posterous)